Opportunities

The whole board, including the boring rows

Every sampled market with its analytic state, demo score, de-vigged fair price, estimated edge, and how fast that edge is expected to decay. Filter it, sort it, and open any row for the reasoning behind the label.

Illustrative demoEvery number on this page is invented sample data on a fixed snapshot. This is not a market feed, not a price you can take, and not an offer.

Markets sampled: 4
Above threshold: 1
Average score: 66/100
Median half-life: 9.5 min

Board

Sampled markets

Sorting defaults to score. Nothing is hidden behind a paywall, because there is no paywall: this is a demo of a layout, populated with invented prices.

Illustrative demoOpportunities — filterable boardSample data

Analytic state

Sort by

Data quality

Showing 4 of 4 sampled markets.

Sampled MLB markets with analytic state, demo score, prices, estimated edge, and estimated half-life. Illustrative demo data on a fixed snapshot.
Market	State	Score	Current	Fair	Sharp	Edge	EV	Half-life	Flags
BOS -1.5Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays	BET	82	+138	+128	+130	+1.84 pts	+4.39%	18m	divergencestale book
SD F5 MLSan Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	WAIT	73	-134	-145	-142	+1.92 pts	+3.35%	12m	divergencestale book
SEA MLSeattle Mariners vs Houston Astros	WAIT	68	+124	+119	+121	+1.02 pts	+2.28%	7m	reversal
CLE team total over 4.5Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	PASS	41	+112	+118	+116	-1.30 pts	-2.75%	3m	—

Sample rows on a fixed snapshot. Prices are invented, book letters correspond to no real sportsbook, and nothing here is available to bet.

Snapshot 23 Aug 2026, 18:05 UTC · Sample snapshot timestamp — fixed value, not a feed reading.

Reading the board

What each column is actually saying

Score

0-100 demo composite

A single number combining book agreement, how long the gap has persisted, how far one book has separated from consensus, movement quality, and a liquidity proxy. The weighting is not published, and on this site the score is synthetic.

Fair and sharp

de-vigged

Fair is the model estimate with book margin removed. Sharp is the de-vigged consensus of the books that historically lead. When the board price is behind both, that is the setup worth scoring.

Edge and EV

derived, not asserted

Edge is fair probability minus the probability implied by the current price, in percentage points. EV is expected value per unit staked. Both are computed from the two prices in the same row.

Half-life

minutes

How long the estimated edge is expected to take to halve. A large edge with a three-minute half-life is usually less useful than a small one that holds for twenty.

Flags

context, not verdicts

Divergence means one book has separated from consensus. Reversal means the market moved and retraced. Stale book means a quote stopped updating and was excluded from consensus.

State

description only

BET, WAIT, and PASS describe what the model concluded. They are not instructions. There is no wager anywhere on this site and no pick is for sale.

States

Why most rows are not BET

On any real board the overwhelming majority of markets are correctly priced. A tool that finds an opportunity in every game is not finding opportunities.

BET: 1
WAIT: 2
PASS: 1

BET

The estimated edge clears the playable threshold and has held long enough to be treated as signal rather than noise.

WAIT

There is an apparent edge, but it is inside the uncertainty band, moving quickly, or resting on a single disagreeing book.

PASS

No edge survives de-vigging, or the market has already absorbed whatever the model saw.

The PASS rows are the honest part

It would be easy to build this page so it only ever showed rows with a positive number. That version would look far better and mean nothing. The PASS row in this sample has a negative edge and it stays on the board.

Detail

Open a row

Each market has a full breakdown: price history, consensus weighting, score components, first movers, information events, the threshold table, and the reasoning behind the state.

Run line · score 82BOS -1.5Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Current +138 against a fair estimate of +128, labelled BET in the demo.Moneyline · score 68SEA MLSeattle Mariners vs Houston Astros. Current +124 against a fair estimate of +119, labelled WAIT in the demo.Team total · score 41CLE team total over 4.5Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers. Current +112 against a fair estimate of +118, labelled PASS in the demo.First five innings · score 73SD F5 MLSan Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies. Current -134 against a fair estimate of -145, labelled WAIT in the demo.