Promo optimizer · Preview

What a boost is actually worth

Sportsbook promotions are priced to look larger than they are. This is a preview of the surface that evaluates them: incremental expected value in units, the maximum stake that still earns the boost, the capital it ties up, and the terms that decide whether any of it survives.

PreviewThis describes a feature that is designed but not built. The figures shown are sample values used to illustrate the layout.

Sample offers: 3
Combined capital: 85u
Combined incremental EV: +19.85u
Offers connected: None

The job

Four questions an optimizer has to answer

A feed that only lists offers is a marketing channel for the sportsbook. The value is entirely in the evaluation, and the evaluation is arithmetic anyone can check.

Is this offer worth anything at all?

A boost on a bad price can still be negative. The only way to know is to compare the boosted price against a fair estimate of the same market, which means de-vigging the underlying market first.

How much is it worth in units, not percent?

A headline percentage says nothing about value. Incremental expected value in units is the number that can be compared against another offer, and it is what the table below ranks on.

What is the largest stake that still earns the boost?

Almost every profit boost is capped. Money staked above the cap is an ordinary bet at an ordinary price, so the cap is the maximum useful stake regardless of how much bankroll is available.

What does it cost to take, and for how long?

Capital is tied up from the moment the stake is placed until the market settles. An offer worth a fraction of a unit that locks up capital across a full slate can be worse than one worth less on paper.

The board

Sample offers, ranked by what they are worth

Ranked by incremental expected value at the maximum useful stake, which is the number that decides where limited capital goes.

PreviewPromo optimizer — sample offersSample data

3 sample offers. Incremental EV is the value the boost adds over the same bet without it, not the value of the bet itself. Preview data only — no offer listed here exists.
Offer	Underlying	Base	Boosted	Fair	EV / unit	Max useful stake	EV at cap
50% profit boost, single game moneylineBook A · 50% boost	BOS MLMLB moneyline	+138	+207	+128	+0.303u	25u	+7.57u
30% profit boost, run lineBook B · 30% boost	SD F5MLB run line	-134	-103	-145	+0.133u	50u	+6.63u
100% profit boost, small capBook C · 100% boost	SEA MLMLB moneyline	+124	+248	+119	+0.566u	10u	+5.66u

Offers, books, terms, and prices are invented sample values. The expected-value arithmetic performed on them is exact and uses the same function as the public promo calculator.

Snapshot 23 Aug 2026, 18:05 UTC · Sample snapshot timestamp — fixed value, not a feed reading. Offers, caps, and expiries are invented and do not correspond to any operator promotion.

The headline percentage is the least useful number on the row

The largest headline in this sample is the 100% boost, and it ranks 3 of 3 once the cap is applied. Per unit staked it is the strongest offer here at +0.566u — but it is capped at 10u, so the most it can add is +5.66u.

The 50% boost with a 25u cap adds +7.57u instead. Two offers can rank in opposite orders depending on whether you measure per unit or at the cap, and the cap is the one that decides where capital actually goes.

Detail

Each offer, with the terms that decide it

Terms are not fine print on a promotion, they are the product. An offer whose stake is not returned, or which voids on a scratched starter, is a different bet from the one the headline describes.

50% profit boost, single game moneyline

Preview

Book: Book A
Underlying market: BOS ML
Base / boosted: +138 → +207
Fair estimate: +128
Incremental EV: +0.303u per unit
Capital required: 25u
Expiry: Sample expiry — first pitch

Sample terms

One use per account in the sample terms.
Profit is boosted; the stake is returned unboosted.
Void if the listed starter is scratched.

30% profit boost, run line

Preview

Book: Book B
Underlying market: SD F5
Base / boosted: -134 → -103
Fair estimate: -145
Incremental EV: +0.133u per unit
Capital required: 50u
Expiry: Sample expiry — same day

Sample terms

Maximum boosted stake is capped in the sample terms.
Cannot be combined with other offers.
Settles on the underlying market result.

100% profit boost, small cap

Preview

Book: Book C
Underlying market: SEA ML
Base / boosted: +124 → +248
Fair estimate: +119
Incremental EV: +0.566u per unit
Capital required: 10u
Expiry: Sample expiry — 24 hours

Sample terms

Low cap makes the headline percentage misleading in isolation.
Boost applies to profit only.
Single selection only in the sample terms.

The arithmetic

How incremental EV is computed

A profit boost multiplies the profit portion of a winning bet and never the returned stake. Getting that one detail wrong overstates every offer on the board.

The calculation

Real arithmetic

Convert the base American price to decimal, and take the profit portion as decimal minus one.
Multiply that profit portion — and only that portion — by one plus the boost.
Compute expected value at both prices against the same fair probability.
Subtract: the difference is what the boost added, independent of whether the underlying bet was any good.
Multiply by the cap to get the most the offer can be worth.

A 50% boost on +100 pays +150, not +200. That case is one of the deterministic tests the shared math module is checked against on every build.

Run it on your own numbers →

A boost does not make a bad price good

Incremental EV is always positive for a genuine profit boost, because the boosted price is strictly better than the unboosted one. That is not the same as the bet being worth taking: the underlying bet can be negative by more than the boost adds, and the total is what matters.

An optimizer that ranks offers by boost value alone will happily march an account through a slate of losing bets. This is the failure mode the feature has to be designed against, not a detail.

Capital, not just EV

Combined capital: 85u
Combined EV: +19.85u
Return on capital: 23.36%
Offers available: 0

Every stake ties up capital until the market settles. Ranking offers without that constraint produces a list nobody can actually execute.

Not built

What this preview cannot do

The difficult parts of a promo optimizer are the parts that touch a real account. None of them exists.

Capabilities required for a working optimizer, and their status.
Capability	Status	Detail
Reading offers from a book account	Not built	There is no sportsbook integration of any kind on this site, so no offer can be detected, imported, or verified. Every row below was typed by hand as sample data.
Eligibility and account state	Not built	Whether a specific account is eligible for a specific offer depends on region, account age, prior use, and operator discretion. None of that is knowable from here.
Terms parsing	Not built	Real terms decide whether an offer is worth anything: void rules, settlement basis, and whether the stake is returned. Parsing them reliably is the hard part of this feature and it is not built.
Live pricing on the underlying market	Not built	The value of a boost changes with the underlying price. Without a market feed, an optimizer can only evaluate a snapshot, which is what the numbers here are.

Offer detectionComing soonTerms parsingComing soonEligibility checksComing soonCapital schedulingComing soon

What promotions are for

Boosts, bonuses, and free bets exist to increase how much is wagered and how often. Some of them carry positive value for the person taking them; all of them carry positive value for the operator offering them, or they would not be offered. Treating a promotion as free money is how a bankroll ends up staked far past any plan.

If gambling is causing you harm, the responsible gambling page lists help resources.

Today

What you can actually use right now

The evaluation math behind this preview is not hypothetical. It is on the tools page, it is free, and it runs in your browser.

Promo EV calculator

Current

Enter a base price, a boost percentage, a cap, and your fair estimate. The calculator returns the boosted price and the incremental value, with the same function that produced every number on this page.

Open the calculator →

No-vig fair price

Current

The fair estimate is the input that decides everything else. Strip the margin out of the underlying market before deciding what a boost on it is worth.

Open the calculator →

Register interest

Preview

There is no waitlist product and no signup form on this site. If a promo optimizer would be useful to you, an email is the whole process.

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